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Iran Israel Conflict | Will Iran Attack Israel?

Iran Israel Conflict 

Will Iran Attack Israel? A Look at the Ongoing Tensions**

Iran Israel News

Israel has many foes, but one ranks above everyone else both in terms of hatred and capabilities, and that is Iran. From day one, Iran has been involved in this ongoing conflict. They have reportedly plotted the Hamas attack, been behind the escalation in Lebanon, and now, Tehran [Iran’s capital] has issued a new threat, coming directly from their supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran Israel News

“If these crimes continue, the Muslims will become impatient, the resistance forces will become impatient, and no one will be able to stop them. Israel and the West should know this, don’t expect others to let such groups do such things. No one can stop them when they get impatient,” Ayatollah Khamenei warned.

So, who are these resistance groups? They are likely Iran’s proxies in West Asia. Iran’s foreign minister has also hinted at the possibility of preemptive strikes on Israel, leaving us to wonder how serious this threat from Iran is. Is it just rhetoric, or is Iran willing to walk the talk?

First, let’s dive into some background information. Israel and Iran were not always enemies; in fact, they were friends until 1979. The Shah of Iran once called it a “secret love affair.” However, all that changed after the Iranian Revolution. The new regime labeled Israel as the “little Satan,” with the great Satan being the United States. Thus began the Israel-Iran Shadow War.

Both countries are located more than 1,000 kilometers apart and do not share a border, yet they remain staunch enemies. Iran’s Ayatollah expressed praise for the Hamas terrorists who attacked Israel, even stating that he would “kiss their hands.” Since then, Tehran has consistently warned of an escalation of a wider war. But what does this threat mean? Will Iranian soldiers fight against Israel? At present, it seems highly unlikely. However, Iranian proxies could enter the conflict.

These armed groups are spread across West Asia and are funded and supported by Iran. They include

Iran Israel News

1. Hezbollah in Lebanon, arguably the most powerful Iranian proxy,

2. the Houthi’s in Yemen,

3 .the Liwa Fatemiyoun in Syria,

4. the Badr organization in Iraq, and, of course,

5. Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

Iran Israel News

Iran Israel News

 

 

 

 

 

These groups are all backed by Iran and could very well enter the fight.

In fact, Hezbollah has already signaled its willingness by exchanging gunfire with Israel and firing rockets at Israeli positions. A video released by Hezbollah shows them destroying surveillance cameras along the Israel-Lebanon border.

Hezbollah is not Hamas; they have more firepower and more men, meaning Israel cannot take them lightly. However, Hezbollah will not act alone like Hamas. They will need the green light from Iran. So, the question is, does Iran have the appetite for war? According to their leaders, they always do. But the reality is quite different.

Iran’s inflation is almost 47%, unemployment is close to 8%, and their economy has been crippled by Western sanctions. As a result, Iran may not want a direct war, especially as it could draw the US into the conflict. Iran will likely think twice before taking on that risk.

While a proxy war is possible, a direct war looks unlikely, and it has never happened before. For all the talk and enmity, Israel and Iran have never fought a direct war, and fighting one now makes little sense. Assuming that Iran was behind the Hamas attack or at the very least supported it, their political objectives have already been met.

  1. The Saudi-Israel normalization has been paused,
  2. Israeli intelligence has been shamed,
  3. Netanyahu will likely step down after the war, and
  4. the Abraham Accords have been discredited.

As far as Iran is concerned, its mission is accomplished. Anything beyond this would be a bonus, but a bonus that comes with a lot of risk.

Israel Hamas War

Iran seems to be mixing rhetoric with reason. Their foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian has stated –“of course the Americans sent messages to us their message to Iran included calls for implementing restraint and not expanding the war. we respond to the Americans that we are not looking for an expansion of the war, but having restraint cannot be one-sided.”

A lot depends on Israel’s Gaza operation. If it turns into a bloodbath, Iranian proxies could intervene. The Americans are also wary of this, though they have yet to blame Iran for the Hamas terror attack. While a wider war is not inevitable, there is still time and ways to avoid it. What is needed is rational leadership.

As tensions persist between Iran and Israel, the world watches closely, hoping for a peaceful resolution to these longstanding conflicts.

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