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*October 27, 2023*

**The High Stakes of a Potential Ground Invasion**

As the Israel-Hamas War enters its 20th day, the world’s attention remains fixated on a crucial and impending event – the potential ground invasion of Gaza. The stakes couldn’t be higher for both sides in this long-standing conflict, and the looming prospect of a ground invasion adds a new layer of complexity to an already dire situation. The delay in the invasion, however, is raising questions about the reasons behind it and whether it could ultimately lead to a change in plans.

Israel hamas war


**Humanitarian Concerns and Political Risks**

For Gaza, a ground invasion could result in significant casualties, potentially claiming thousands of lives and escalating the already devastating humanitarian crisis. On the other hand, for Israel, it poses a considerable political gamble. An invasion might plunge them into a wider regional conflict and even jeopardize the fragile Arab-Israeli peace process. The timing, execution, and duration of this invasion hold immense significance, given the potential repercussions.


**Netanyahu’s Caution and Opaque Plans**

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains keen on the idea of a ground invasion, but the timing remains undisclosed. In a recent statement, he mentioned, “We have already killed thousands of terrorists, and this is only the beginning. Simultaneously, we are preparing for a ground invasion. I will not elaborate on when, how, or how many. I will also not elaborate on the various calculations we are making, which the public is mostly unaware of, and that is how things should be.”

Israel hamas war

Netanyahu emphasized that the timing of the military’s operation is determined by a consensus within the war cabinet, alongside the Chief of Staff and the cabinet. They are working diligently to ensure the ideal conditions for their troops in the upcoming operations.


**Attempts at Influence in the International Arena**

The delay in the ground invasion has raised concerns and speculation regarding the nature of the holdup. It remains unclear whether the cause is related to political fallout or military considerations. However, it’s evident that Israel is taking this decision seriously and cautiously.


**The UN Security Council Standoff**

Attempts to influence Israel’s decision-making were made at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), where two rival proposals were presented. The first proposal, introduced by the United States, called for a humanitarian pause, distinct from a ceasefire. This proposal was vetoed by both China and Russia. China’s Ambassador, Zhang Jun, stated, “What we oppose is that the draft text attempts to establish a new narrative on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, ignoring the fact that the Palestinian territories have been occupied for a long time.”

Israel hamas war


Russia then introduced its resolution, which included a ceasefire, a condemnation of Hamas attacks, and a condemnation of Israel’s attacks on civilians. This proposal also faced strong opposition from the United States, with Ambassador Robert Wood stating that it failed to reflect the realities on the ground.

Israel hamas war

**The UNSC Deadlock**

The deadlock at the UNSC exemplifies the division and political motivations that often hinder the council’s effectiveness in resolving international conflicts.


**Escalating Tensions and Concerns on the Ground**

While the international community grapples with the delay in the ground invasion, the situation on the ground is deteriorating. Recent clashes along the Israel-Lebanon border and escalating tensions with Hezbollah and Syria have raised concerns about a two-front war. Russian President Vladimir Putin has even suggested that the conflict could spill beyond West Asia, emphasizing the gravity of the situation.

Israel hamas war


Global Support Waning for Israel

One major challenge for Israel moving forward is maintaining global support. While many countries initially rallied behind Israel after the conflict’s outbreak, support has begun to wane. French President Emmanuel Macron expressed his concerns, stating that a massive ground invasion risking civilian lives would be a mistake for both Israel and the region’s stability.

Israel hamas war


**International Criticism**

Brazil’s President, Lula Di Silva, condemned the ongoing violence as a “genocide” that has claimed the lives of innocent children. UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese highlighted the need for legitimate goals to ensure Israel’s security and dismantle Hamas’s military capacity, rather than collectively punishing the Palestinian population for Hamas’s actions.

Israel hamas war

Changing Sentiments in Muslim Nations

In the Muslim world, opposition to Israel is hardening, with Turkey’s President Erdogan significantly altering his stance. Initially, Erdogan sought to play a peacemaker role but now openly supports Hamas, even referring to them as a “Liberation group.” This shift in Erdogan’s position reflects a broader change in sentiment among Muslim nations, many of which are Israel’s neighbors.

Israel hamas war

The Pivotal Role of the United States

The United States remains a pivotal factor in Israel’s strategy, providing not only weapons and diplomatic cover but also influencing Israel’s military actions. President Joe Biden has continued to support Israel’s right to defend itself while seeking to ensure that Hamas can no longer use Palestinian civilians as human shields.

Israel hamas war

**Bipartisan Support for Israel**

The recent political deadlock in the United States over the election of a new speaker underscores the depth of bipartisan support for Israel. The newly elected Speaker, Mike Johnson, promptly passed a resolution supporting Israel, highlighting the unwavering backing that Israel receives from the United States in times of war.

Israel hamas war

The Weight of Israel’s Decisions

As the world watches and speculates about the timing of a ground invasion in Gaza, it is clear that Israel’s decisions will be influenced by a complex web of political and military factors. The delay serves as a reminder of the immense consequences at stake and the high price of missteps in this long-standing conflict.

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